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Population of Nigeria
I found a really great article on the population of Nigeria by J. G. Ottong.
INTRODUCTION
Population is a major asset, as resource for development, and is also the prime beneficiary of development in society. It constitutes the bulk of the producers of goods and services as well as the major consumers of the goods and services. Thus, the population of a country is a major determinant of the size of the national and international marvel for investment. In Nigeria, population has been a rather sensitive and controversial issue because of its implica- tions for shaping regional (now geopolitical), state and ethnic relations and balance of power. It is the attitude towards the population question, in terms of its absolute size, as it affects the states and the sub-regions that constitutes the background to the census controversies which the country has been associated with (PAN, 1990; Ottong, 1983). The controversies have been responsible for the rather chequered history of census taking in Nigeria. It is however salutary to note that the phenomenon now appears to be a thing of the past, especially with the successful conduct of the 1991 census. The 1991 census, conducted by the National Population Commission, was preceded by the kind of elaborate preparation that would be expected of a scientifically conducted census, by international standards. The outcome of the census has been widely acclaimed, although it might not necessarily have been perfect. Preparations for the 2001 census exercise in the country started with series of workshops and seminars/conferences on census advocacy, sensitisation and development of modules. It seems that for the year 2001, Nigeria did firmly join the comity of nations in the regular conduct of decennial censuses. In the sections that follow, the population of Nigeria is further discussed in terms of its dynamics, composition, spatial distribution and the processes of urbanisation, drawing largely from the 1991 census. Population - Size And Growth Rates
Nigeria Is the most populous country in Africa and the tenth in the world. These include the major demographic features as obtained from two major sources, viz.: the 1991 census and the PRB's Worfd Population Data Sheet. According to the final figures of the 1991 census, the population of Nigeria, at the time, was 88.92 million. Projection of the population, using a 3.0 per cent growth rate, shows that the population of Nigeria could be about 106 million in 1999. The Population Reference Bureaus estimated total population of the country in 1999 has about 113.8 million. Obviously, tile population of Nigeria is large, which makes it a "giant" relative to the other African countries. The large population implies a large market for goods and. services as well as a large pool of human resources for development. However, the impact of population on development depends not only on the absolute size but also on its quality. Population growth rate is influenced by the interplay of the three main demographic processes of fertility, mortality and migration. The data in Table 1.3.1 show a crude birth rate of about 44 per 1,000. This yields annual growth rate (natural increase) of about 3.0 per cent The annual growth rate of the Nigerian population is believed to have risen steadily from an estimated 2.8 per cent in the 1960s to around 3.3 per cent in the 1985 to 1990 period. Although a steady decline in the growth rate is believed to have been in progress in the 1990s, the rate is still relatively high for (economic) comfort. For instance, a growth rate of 3.3 per cent per annum suggests a population doubling time of 22 years. The reality of this scenario might not necessarily be with the absolute size of the population but, more importantly, with the implications of the growth rate for the future size of the population, and the ability of the economy to grow commensurately with and, therefore, cope with the increase in population size. The relatively low mortality of about 13 to 14 per 1000 (crude death rate) and a declining infant mortality rate, as well as the increasing life expectancy in tile population, all suggest higher survival chances and therefore, a swell in the size of future population. The major factor responsible for the rapid increase in the population of the country is the relatively high fertility level as portrayed by a total fertility rate of about 6.0 live-births per woman in the1990s. The Nigerian fertility survey during 1981/82 put the average number of child birfris per woman (i.e. total fertility rate) at 6.4. Although the data here suggest a slight decline, the level is still relatively high. It seems an appreciable fall in fertility level in the country would depend on achieving a significant change in the cultural, socio psychologica! and economic attitude of Nigerians towards children. A frontal approach was taken in pursuance of this goal when, in 1988, Nigeria adopted a National Population Policy which seeks to reduce population growth rate through voluntary fertility regulation, and to promote the health and welfare of mothers and children to improve the quality of life of all Nigerians. The main thrust of the policy is the recommendation to young couples not to have more than four children per family (or per woman) and to attain a reduction of the population of women bearing more than four children by 80 per cent by the year 2000. Population - Age And Sex Composition
The age and sex distribution of the population of Nigeria by the 1991 census is as shown in Table 1.3.2. The data Show a high proportion of children in the population. Those under 15 years of age constituted about 45 per cent of the total population. The proportion of aged persons (60 years and above) in the population constituted only 3.3 per cent. The age structure of the population, according to the 1991 census, shows a very broad-based pyramid, reflecting the large proportion of children and young persons. The large proportion of the population aged under 15 years portrays a large number of potential parents. The data also demonstrate a high child (or youth) dependency ratio which, when combined with the aged dependency ratio, gives an overall dependency ratio of about 1 to 1. That is, for every supposedly active (i.e. productive) person in the population in the working age group of 25 to 64 years, one other person is dependent. This is a rellatively large figure compared with the situation )n the deveioped countries with e chief dependency ratio of about one child to three adults of the working age groups. Furthermore, the high level of unemployment in Nigeria means prolonged dependency of working-age adults on parents and on the economically active (working) population. Obviously, a higher depenpendency ratio exposes considerable strain on the economy at both the family and national levels. The large amount of resources used to provide feeding and clothing as well as for the education and health care of young people has greatly reduced the level of savings, investment and capital formation in the country. The high proportion of young people in the population has implications for future jobiessness as the economy is not likely to expand (grow) rapidly enough to accommodate the population. It is observed that the high proportion of young people in the population is as a result of high fertility level and declining mortality level. The situation of a young and rapidly expanding population is likely to continue in the country for some time until fertility level falls and the proportion of children in the population starts lowering. Spatial Distribution Nigeria has a total land area of about 923,700 sq.km. Going by the 1991 census figures, this gives a national density of about 96 persons per square km. However, this national average conceals very wide variations in population density in different parts of the country. Indeed, the feature of unevenness in the distribution of the Nigerian population is considered as one of the country's population problems, as the land mass is generally sparsely and very unevenly settled. There are parts of the country with densities of under 50 persons per sq. km, while there are other areas with densities of from 500 to over 1000 persons per sq.km. As can be observed from the map, the southern part of the country is generally very densely settled with the largest concentrations in the south-east, southwest and the core areas of Kano, Katsina, Sokoto and Zamfara States. The south-eastern part of the country, covering parts of Imo, Abia and particularly Akwa lbom States, experience the highest rural population densities. The obvious implication of high population concentration is population pressure on basic resources resulting in scarcity of farmland, surface water and fuel wood. The high density areas frequently experience land disputes and clashes over boundary claims, and are very vulnerable to the phenomenon of out-migration. Migration And Urbanization There is a large volume of internal migration in the country induced by scarcity of land, impoverished soil, declining crop yields, poor harvests and soilf erosion, among others. The acquisition of some level of education or skill is also an important factor that prompts migration. Internal migration takes different fomis and patterns, but the most sig nificant is the movement from rural areas to urban centres. Rural-urban migration is responsible for the depopulation of some rural area's and the influx of people into towns and cities. In the face of biting economic crunch and polit ical uncertainty, Nigeria has also, in the last one decade or so, witnessed increased level of emigra tion. This is responsible for the rather worrisome phenomenon of "brain-drain" for which the country has come to be associated with. International migration, particularly in the West African region, has also become intensified in the context of the emerging Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The rapid rate of increase in the population of large urban centres through migration has been of great concern to successive governments in the country since the second half of the 1950s. The urban centres of Lagos, Port Harcourt, Warri, Jos, Kaduna and Kano have grown very fast. Abuja, the Federal Capital City and some of the new State capitals have also. experienced phenomenal growth as aresult of migration. Rapid urban growth has resulted in problems of urban congestion or over crowding, poor housing, poor environmental sanita tion, unemployment, crimes and other social vices which have come to characterise Nigeria's large urban centres. According to the 1991 census figures, Nigeria was then about 36 per cent urban; the country can thus be said to be still a predominantly rural society with over 60 percent of its total popu- lation living in small, remote, rural communities, The western part of the country, inhabited by the Yoruba who have established the cultural tradition of living in large population concentrations, is more urbanised than other parts of the country. However, their large cities such as lbadan, Oshogbo, Ondo, Abeokuta and llorin are largely traditional and pre industrial in features with, at best, a mixture of the modern and the old. The country is, however, faced with the paradox of being one of the least urbanised world regions, yet experiencing the phenomenon of over-urbanisation. This is so because urban growth is not in response to industrialisation; hence, there is a high level of unemployment/underemployment, low productivity, a rather bloated tertiary or service sector and marginalisation of the labour force in the towns and cities Other Features of The Population The other relatively important features of the population, for the purpose of planning, include literacy, occupation and labour force. On literacy, the 1991 census data show that 57 per cent of Nigerians can be said to be literate. Although this seems to be an improvement on the situation in the 1980s, when it was estimated that Nigeria was about 40-45 per cent literate, the census data on literacy is still relatively low by worid standard. For instance, some of the developing countries in Asia, Latin and South America have attained 70-80 per cent literacy levels, while the level in the developed countries stands at 99-100 per cent. The census data on literacy for the country, however, obscure wide differences between the sexes, age groups as well as between urban and rural areas. Analysis of the data along gender lines shows that while about 60 per cent of the male population is literate, only 40 per cent of the female population is literate. For ages 40 years and above, literacy rate is at least twice as high tor males as for females. The sex differential in literacy rate is substantially narrow among the lower age groups. This seems to be a function of the increasing awareness and interest in female education in the country in the last three decades. It is expected that, with the launching in 1999 of the Universal Basic Education (UBE) Scheme in the country, the overall level of literacy among the population will increase, while the sex differential will further narrow substantially for most of the age groups. The 1991 census data on occupation and employment status show that Nigeria is still predominantly an agrarian society with about 45 per cent of the population engaged in agriculture. There is, however, a noticeable drop from the 70 per cent level observed for agriculture and allied activities in the Labour Force Sample Survey of 1966 - 67. Sales work (commerce) involving buying and selling, hawking of small items and management of small retailing shops and kiosks come next to agriculture with just about 22 per cent. Increased activities in the oil sector of the economy and increasing urbanisation have prompted expan- sion in employment in the production, professional and technical sectors. Analysis of the data on employment status shows that the labour force of the Nigerian economy is about 32 per cent of the total population, about 45 per cent of which can be said to be economically active. Since the population is young and expansive, the level of unemployment is high. The vast majority of Nigerians are self-employed with most of them in agriculture(particularly subsistence farming) and petty trading. The service sector of the economy is over-sized, with a large number of the operators remaining under-employed.
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